The hottest profit guides the supply of aluminum.

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Profit guided supply aluminum price will be pushed back to its original shape under the pressure of production

electrolytic aluminum supply will be affected by its profit changes. From the perspective of historical cycle, the average loss of electrolytic aluminum industry is about 1000 yuan/ton, which is basically the limit that the industry can bear. In terms of behavior, once the extreme loss is reached, enterprises may consider reducing costs and production: cost reduction is a passive behavior under the guidance of the market, that is, the decline in the price of raw materials such as upstream alumina leads to cost reduction, so as to restore enterprise profits; The reduction of production of enterprises is an active behavior, that is, by reducing market supply and balancing supply and demand, the aluminum price will be raised, so as to repair enterprise profits

due to the continuous transfer to low-cost regions in recent years (such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Shandong, Yunnan, etc.), the distribution of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China shows the characteristics of "low cost accounts for a relatively high proportion (nearly 70%) and high cost accounts for a relatively small proportion". Therefore, this enterprise will bear the brunt of the decline in aluminum prices and face the pressure of production reduction

in terms of the scale of metal matrix composites, if there is any loosening, the production will be reduced by about 3million tons in the second half of 2018 (including 1million tons of loss reduction, 1.5 million tons of capacity transfer and 500000 tons of limited production in winter). The supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will be balanced after the production reduction, and the aluminum price also showed signs of bottoming in early 19

in the context of the current rise in aluminum prices and the rapid recovery of industry profits, it will only be a matter of time before the production capacity reduced due to losses in the early stage resumes production. Whether the other part of the new production capacity will accelerate the progress will also become a core variable at the supply side in the future

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